When prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket settle soccer contracts on official data, the leagues that own the data are in the best position to keep the money. Suppliers like Sportradar and Genius Sports sell the feeds, but they have to buy the rights first, and Sportradar's latest results show those rights getting more expensive faster than its sales are growing. Prediction markets are a real new customer. The question is who ends up with the profit.
My read: the leagues. Here's why.
Why prediction markets need official soccer (football) data
A prediction market lets people trade on the outcome of an event, like who wins a match. To pay out, the exchange has to decide what happened, and it needs a source it can trust. That's called settling a contract.
Official data is the cleanest answer. It comes from the league itself, usually through a licensed supplier with people or tracking systems in the stadium. It's fast, and nobody can argue with it later. It also helps with integrity, because the same suppliers monitor betting patterns for match-fixing.
That's why Kalshi and Polymarket are now buying the same kind of data licensed sportsbooks buy. Both operate in the U.S. as federally regulated exchanges under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not under state gambling licenses. And the volume is real. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket's U.S. platform did a combined $50.59 billion in July, according to The Block's data.
Sportradar and Genius Sports both sell official data to Kalshi and Polymarket
There are two big official-data suppliers, and both are selling to the same exchanges.
Sportradar has signed Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig as exchange partners, Robinhood as its first broker and about 10 market makers. CEO Carsten Koerl said the third quarter was the first in which prediction markets made a positive contribution. During the quarter, Sportradar expanded its Polymarket deal to more than 20 leagues and competitions, including the Bundesliga, Euroleague Basketball and tennis's Grand Slams.
Genius Sports moved in August. It signed Polymarket's U.S. platform on August 4 and Kalshi on August 5 to supply official data for settling contracts. Kalshi's deal covers real-time data for the Premier League, Liga MX, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Argentina's Primera División. Genius controls a lot of soccer rights that Sportradar doesn't.
So Kalshi now buys from both suppliers. That's good for Kalshi. It's not great for either supplier's pricing power.
Sportradar's sports rights costs rose 54% while revenue rose 24%
This is the number that answers the margin question. Sportradar reported third-quarter revenue of $402 million on November 3, up 24%. Its betting and gaming content business, the data side, grew 37% to $268 million. U.S. revenue jumped 47% to $108 million and is now 27% of the company's total, up from 23%. Sportradar credited prediction market growth for part of that U.S. jump.
But sports rights expenses rose about 54%. Those are the license fees Sportradar pays leagues and federations to be the official source of their data. Adjusted EBITDA rose 21%, slower than revenue, so the margin slipped to about 28% from about 29%.
One caveat. Much of that rights increase comes from IMG Arena rights Sportradar acquired, and the company groups IMG Arena and prediction market customers together when it explains growth. So the reports don't show exactly how much prediction markets earn or cost on their own.
The direction is still clear. Sportradar's sales are growing fast. The leagues' cut is growing faster.
Why leagues win the official data pricing fight
Leagues and federations own the data. A supplier that wants to be the official source has to pay for that right, usually for a fixed term. When a new buyer like a prediction market shows up, the league doesn't need to sell to it directly. It just waits for the next rights renewal and charges the supplier more.
Competition between suppliers makes that easier. If Sportradar won't pay up for a league's data, Genius might. Exclusive rights are the whole product, so suppliers bid hard to keep them.
Suppliers do have scale on their side. They sell the same feed to sportsbooks, media companies and now prediction markets around the world, and they can bundle data with integrity services, streaming and marketing. That's real value. But scale only protects margin if the input cost holds still, and right now it isn't.
Sportsbooks and state regulators are watching prediction market data deals
Sportsbooks should pay attention. Prediction markets are competing for the same customers and now use the same official feeds, which removes one of the arguments that they're less trustworthy.
Leagues get a new revenue stream without taking a public position on prediction markets. The money flows through the data supplier. That's convenient for leagues that want the cash without the headline.
Regulation is the wild card. Several states have moved to restrict or ban sports event contracts, and courts and the CFTC are still deciding whether they're trading or betting. If that fight goes against the exchanges, this new customer gets smaller fast, and suppliers will be stuck with expensive rights they bought expecting growth.
For now, I'd bet on the leagues. They own the one thing nobody else can make.
