Some MLB free agents will sign before the December 1 lockout, but probably fewer than people expected and mostly at the top of the market. This week's General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas, running November 9-12, are the one time before the deadline when executives from all 30 teams and the agents for this winter's free agents are in the same building. Whatever doesn't get started there has about three weeks to get done before everything freezes.
That's what makes this year's meetings different. In a normal winter, Vegas is where deals get sketched out. This winter, it might be where most of them have to happen.
What happens to MLB free agency when the CBA expires on December 1?
The labor deal expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 1, and owners are widely expected to lock out the players right away. Once that happens, signings stop, trades stop and teams can't even talk to players on their 40-man rosters. The Winter Meetings, scheduled for December 7-9 in San Diego, almost certainly won't happen.
So every free agent has a choice. Sign now, under rules everyone understands, or wait out a lockout that could stretch into the 2027 season. A player who waits gets no paycheck and no guarantee that the market looks the same when it reopens.
Why MLB teams spent $1.4 billion right before the 2021 lockout
We've seen this before. Before the last lockout began on December 2, 2021, teams committed about $1.4 billion on the final day alone, according to the Associated Press. Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Báez and Kevin Gausman all signed in that rush. Seager's 10-year, $325 million deal with Texas was the headliner.
That rush made sense for both sides. Players got guaranteed money before the shutdown. Teams got their rosters set before a 99-day freeze, and they knew the rules those contracts would live under.
This year is different in one big way. The league has proposed a hard salary cap of $258.2 million starting in 2028, tied to a 50-50 revenue split and an escrow system the union says would claw back guaranteed money. The union says it will never agree to it. But a long contract signed this month runs straight into whatever system comes next. That's a lot of uncertainty to price into a seven- or eight-year deal.
Tarik Skubal is the free agent who could break the lockout logjam
Tarik Skubal is the name that matters this week. The two-time Cy Young winner, who finished 2026 with the Dodgers, is the clear top free agent. ESPN's Jeff Passan has reported he's expected to sign before the CBA expires for a record contract.
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel surveyed 27 industry insiders, and their average projection was eight years and $355 million. That would pass Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million, the current record for a pitcher. Seventy-eight percent of that panel expected Skubal to sign before the lockout.
There's a catch. Skubal had another elbow procedure in 2026, on top of Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022. Some teams are wary of a record deal for a pitcher with that history. If his agent, Scott Boras, can't get the number he wants by December 1, Skubal could wait, and the market would wait with him.
The $23.15 million qualifying offer looks better with a lockout coming
Eight players received the $23.15 million qualifying offer this month, including Yankees closer David Bednar, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena. They have until November 17 to accept.
Only 18 of the 157 qualifying offers made before this year were accepted, according to ESPN. I think this year's number goes up. A guaranteed $23.15 million for one season looks smarter when the alternative is sitting through a lockout hoping a multiyear offer is still there in March.
How a lockout affects Japanese free agent Teruaki Sato
The posting system adds another wrinkle. Hanshin slugger Teruaki Sato has been posted from Japan, which gives him a 45-day window to sign. Five years ago, Seiya Suzuki's window was paused during the lockout and he signed with the Cubs in March. Bleacher Report's understanding is that Sato would get the same treatment. Still, teams that want him have a reason to move now instead of risking a long wait.
Who wins and loses if MLB free agents wait out the lockout?
Players who sign now win certainty. Players who wait take a risk, but some could come out ahead if a long lockout leaves teams with money to spend and holes to fill in a short spring.
Teams are split. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and other big spenders can afford to move now. Small-market teams have every reason to wait and see what the new deal does to payrolls.
Fans get the worst version of this. If the big names sign now, there's a burst of news and then months of silence. If they don't, there's just silence. Sportsbooks can't price 2027 win totals with much confidence until rosters are set.
My read: Skubal signs before December 1, a few players take the qualifying offer, and most of the middle of the market waits. The GM Meetings won't produce many signings this week. But if nothing gets started in Vegas, I don't see where else it would.
